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Earthquakes : Models, Statistics, Testable Forecasts

The temporal dimension indicates that earthquake origin times are concentrated on a small subset of total time, determining quantitatively properties of this subset are the basis for the short-term earthquake prediction. Similarly, the long-term forecasts are based on the description of the spatial structure of earthquake occurrence, its dimension points out that seismicity is strongly concentrated in space. For the phenomenological forecast of seismic activity, two branching methods can be used. The chapter shows long-term forecasts for the north-west Pacific area; one forecast is calculated before the 2011 Tohoku sequence started, the other after the mega-earthquake. The forecast method described in the chapter can be considered as an important step in the development of seismicity-based earthquake forecasts. The chapter shows the rate density of m5 earthquakes forecasted by the smoothed seismicity model. The continuum-state branching model of fault propagation can be applied to maps of geologic faults and past earthquakes.rn

Ketersediaan
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Balai Besar Survei dan Pemetaan Geologi Kelautan - Jln. Dr. Djundjunan No. 236, Bandung, Jawa Barat BSL 550.34 KAG e
BSL 550.34 KAG e
Tersedia
Informasi Detail
Judul Seri
Statistical Physics of Fracture and Breakdown
No. Panggil
BSL 550.34 KAG e
Penerbit
Oxford : John Wiley & Sons.,
Deskripsi Fisik
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Bahasa
English
ISBN/ISSN
9781118637920
Klasifikasi
550.34
Tipe Isi
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Tipe Media
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Tipe Pembawa
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Edisi
-
Subjek
Earthquake prediction
Prediksi Gempa
Earthquakes Hazard Analysis
Analisis gempa
Info Detail Spesifik
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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab
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